Jersey Airport handled (24-Jan-2022) 670,693 passengers in 2021, up 61% year-on-year. Annual average load factor was 61%, better than initially predicted. The airport is "cautiously optimistic" that the emergence of positive traffic trends in 2H2021 will continue into 2022. [more - original PR]
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As crude oil prices soar to seven year highs, jet fuel is climbing even more steeply.
This is weighing heavily on airline share prices and the outlook offers little room for comfort.
Asia-Pacific airlines are slowly rebuilding widebody and narrowbody fleets that were decimated by the COVID-19 crisis. As more aircraft return to service, a better picture is emerging of what fundamental changes have occurred.
Many airlines will look significantly different, as the pandemic has transformed the makeup of operating fleets as well as longer-term fleet strategies.
The region’s airlines have accelerated the retirement of older types due to the pandemic, catalysing the shift to newer, more efficient aircraft. Order books have been shaken up as airlines readjust to changed market expectations. And now new orders are starting to emerge, with airlines looking ahead to the next phase of their development.
The first part of this two-part analysis sets the scene, and focuses on how the inactive and active fleets have changed in the Asia-Pacific region as the pandemic has progressed.
The story is slightly different for narrowbodies and widebodies, and for different sub-regions in Asia.
Europe has undergone a capacity slump since the end of 2021, prompted by increased travel restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 case numbers.
Seat numbers for Europe are 39.9% below 2019 levels in the week of 17-Jan-2022. This represents a decline of 2.0ppts over the week of 10-Jan-2022 and 21.3ppts over the past three weeks.
Europe is still at the bottom of the regional capacity recovery ranking.
Africa capacity is down by 33.6%, Asia Pacific by 30.5%, the Middle East by 28.8%, Latin America by 15.8%, and North America by 12.6%.
However, there are already signs that travel restrictions are easing as confidence grows that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus is not leading to a commensurate increase in hospitalisations and deaths. This is good news for airline bookings and capacity.
Nevertheless, analysis of data from the CAPA Fleet Database still shows that Europe's total fleet has not yet recovered its pre-crisis size, particularly if only aircraft in service are counted. The leading exceptions are the ultra-LCCs Wizz Air and Ryanair, both of which now have bigger fleets than before the pandemic.
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London’s City Airport, close to the financial districts of what claims to be the world’s premier financial centre, has thrived in the past on the needs of the business community.
But that community went AWOL during the coronavirus pandemic, with the exception of the third quarter of 2021, when air travel picked up a little. Many users have got used to online communication, and despite ‘Zoom fatigue’ it may be difficult to entice them back.
Nevertheless, the airport’s management is persevering with its strategy of encouraging corporate travel and the airlines that will support it, against a background of hardly any political support for it being there at all, and the anticipated opening of a rail line which could connect many of its existing passengers to Heathrow Airport, where there are greater frequencies.
Having said that, it is probably doing more behind the scenes to develop leisure travel demand than meets the eye.
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Recorded at CAPA Live December
CAPA Live: 2021 Year in Review
CAPA Live took place on the second Wednesday of every month throughout 2021, featuring airline CEOs, industry leaders and renowned analysts. It complemented CAPA’s daily news and analysis activities that are widely read across the aviation industry. Reflecting our commitment to support the global aviation industry through its deepest crisis.
French Civil Aviation Authority (DGAC) reported (24-Jan-2022) the following traffic highlights:
- Dec-2021:
- Passengers: -37.5% compared to Dec-2019;
- Domestic: -17%;
- International: -42.8%;
- From Metropolitan France: -42%;
- EU27: -30.2%;
- America: -34.1%;
- Asia Pacific: -60.7%;
- Europe excluding EU27: -56.1%;
- Africa: -53.9%;
- From French overseas territories: -36.8%;
- From Metropolitan France: -42%;
- Passengers: -37.5% compared to Dec-2019;
- 2021:
- Passengers: -61% compared to 2019;
- Domestic: -40.5%;
- International: -65.8%;
- From Metropolitan France: -65.4%;
- EU27: -59.7%;
- America: -72.6%;
- Asia Pacific: -80.5%;
- Europe excluding EU27: -74.1%;
- Africa: -58.8%;
- From French overseas territories: -60.8%. [more - original PR]
- From Metropolitan France: -65.4%;
- Passengers: -61% compared to 2019;
Bamboo Airways plans to launch twice weekly Hanoi-London Heathrow service from 22-Mar-2022 (Routes Online, 24-Jan-2022). The carrier secured slots at London Heathrow Airport in 1Q2021 and operated a one off flight in Oct-2021.
UK's Government announced (24-Jan-2022) the following changes to COVID-19 testing measures for travellers arriving in the UK:
- Effective 04:00 11-Feb-2022, all testing requirements will be removed for eligible fully vaccinated arrivals, with only a passenger locator form now required;
- Arrivals who are not recognised as fully vaccinated will be required to take a pre-departure test and a PCR test on or before day two after they arrive in the UK;
- Children aged between 12 and 15 in England will be able to prove their vaccination status or proof of prior infection via a digital NHS COVID Pass from 03-Feb-2022 for outbound travel.
The Government attributed the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions to "the success of the UK's vaccine and booster rollout", stating that this new COVID-19 framework "is intended to be one that will last". Airlines UK CEO Tim Alderslade stated: "Today's announcement brings international travel towards near normality for the fully vaccinated, and at last into line with hospitality and the domestic economy. It will offer further reassurance to those planning to travel, both overseas and into the UK, and demonstrates again that following the success of the vaccine programme, the UK can lead the world in our recovery from the pandemic". [more - original PR]
All Nippon Airways (ANA) announced (24-Jan-2022) plans to further suspend 3865 domestic frequencies between 27-Jan-2022 and 28-Feb-2022. The reductions will bring ANA's overall Jan-2022 operation rate to 92% and Feb-2022 to 81%. [more - original PR - Japanese]
Bamboo Airways, via its official Facebook account, announced (24-Jan-2022) plans to launch twice weekly Ho Chi Minh City-Melbourne service from 19-Feb-2022 with Boeing 787-9 aircraft (Routes Online, 24-Jan-2022). It will mark the carrier's first scheduled service to Australia.
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Aviation returns to the 1930s
Issue 53
- There has been much talk about the post-COVID-19 industry reverting to the profile of the 1970s, but in two very important ways the real timeframe to compare is the 1930s.
Global Outlook 2020: A look into the coming decade, expect massive change
Issue 52
- If the first two decades of the century were transformational for the aviation industry, the 2020s will be revolutionary.