Research Publications

In 2023 CAPA - Centre for Aviation (CAPA) published three reports on investors in the airport business by sector - sovereign wealth funds; private equity; and pension funds. Together they form a substantial block of investors into airports, and their numbers continue to grow. The fourth and final report follows, on airline investors.

There are just as many of them, but their overall impact is limited compared to the other groups. In most cases their investment level is low, and they may amount to being as little as a small part of a consortium (for example, in Japan). There is no airline or group that can be considered a significant investor in a major airport or group, with the single exception of Lufthansa, which has equity in Fraport and a share in a terminal at Munich.

Most of the players are 'Full Service Carriers' and alliance members, but they also embrace regional airlines and LCCs. Management at the latter are often keen to let their opinion on airports be known, and to suggest that they could "do things better" without actually making much of an effort to prove it. The Capital A (AirAsia) group is one such entity, which has recently been vocally active on the matter - and not for the first time - but which has yet to put pen to paper. Ryanair did much the same in the past, but has not so much nowadays.

In the immediate future the greatest opportunities will probably come in the US, where the public and private partnership method of airport development has increasingly found favour with airport operators, constructors, and both domestic and foreign airlines at major airports. It stands ready to be repeated at smaller airports throughout the country. This report also contains a brief overview of the regulatory issues connected to such investments in the various world regions.

After several years of rapid recovery, strong demand for air travel persists, and an air of cautious optimism has crept into the industry. Airlines are finally starting to see measurable progress in their energy transition, particularly with in the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels. This is occurring largely in the absence of established regulatory frameworks and without the desired levels of public sector policy support.

These key megatrends outline the shape of the industry and the agenda for the upcoming CAPA Airline Leader Summit World & Awards for Excellence held in Belgrade, Serbia on November 21-22!

Lessors of commercial aircraft are benefitting from strong passenger demand, as are their customers (the airlines). However, the lessors are also benefitting from the positive impact on lease rates and aircraft market values resulting from supply chain constraints.

The global aircraft leasing sector is led by AerCap – by far the biggest player by fleet and revenue – but there is a clear top five of leading lessors (which also includes Air Lease Corporation, Avolon, BOC Aviation and SMBC Aviation Capital).

These five have 31% of lessor aircraft in service, but 48% of lessor orders (source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database) – this points to a further increase in their share of the world’s leased fleet in future.

The leading lessors’ financial results were hit by COVID-19 and the Russian aircraft crisis in 2022, but profits have recovered.

Moreover, the credit ratings of the top five have remained investment grade.

Premium travel is back for airlines and remains key business ingredient.

In the decade before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, travel in premium cabins generated approximately 20% of industry revenue globally and about 30% of all revenue from international operations. This was despite premium passengers accounting for only 5% of international origin destination passengers and approximately 7% of global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs).

According to the airline trade body, International Air Transport Association (IATA), by the end of 2023 traffic (RPKs) in premium cabins was at 99.1% of pre-pandemic levels, while economy-class travel was only at 94.1% of 2019 volumes.

We're excited to announce that the third edition of the CAPA-Envest Global Airline Sustainability Benchmarking & Rating Report is now available.

In Oct-2021, CAPA – Centre for Aviation (CAPA), in partnership with Envest Global, published its initial Airline Sustainability Benchmarking Report, that report being the first step in providing insights into the status of airline decarbonisation and designed to assist decision-making by a broad range of stakeholders.

This, the third edition of the CAPA-Envest Global Airline Sustainability Benchmarking & Rating Report, continues these key themes. It provides detailed analysis into a “post-COVID-19” operating environment for the aviation sector and, importantly, insights into the aviation industry's pathway to Net Zero.

Benefits of the Report:

• Provides a transparent, data-driven assessment of airline sustainability.
• Establishes an independent, standardised rating system based on emissions for airlines.
• Allows airlines to compare and contrast their sustainability results with industry counterparts.
• Assists corporate travel buyers in identifying the most carbon-efficient airlines.
• Supports Travel Management Companies (TMCs) in understanding airline emissions and helping clients achieve internal targets.
• Informs investors and financiers about the relative sustainability ratings of airlines.
• Fosters a competitive market where environmental responsibility is key.
• Allows investors to understand airlines' green efforts, aligning with the industry's shift towards net-zero operations.

BONUS appendix – Data summaries for over 80 airlines now included!

Inclusions:

• Rating Framework
• Disclosure
• Total CO2 Emissions
• Emission Intensity
• SAF Use
• Offsets Purchased
• Factors Affecting Emission Intensity
• Financial Indicators of Sustainability Risk or Resilience
• Airline Sustainability Rating

CAPA Members, CAPA Summit attendees and CTC Corporate Buyer Members receive exclusive discounts, Contact us or reach out to your dedicated CAPA Account Manager for your code. 

Global travel returns to normal, but growth is increasingly at the mercy of aircraft makers.

Global airline seat capacity finished 2023 at 99% of 2019 levels. 

Given that barely 18 months ago in 2022 global seat capacity was at a mere 50% of historic levels, this return to near normality is a remarkable achievement. 

Some variability in the level of recovery and regional volatility still exists. Asia Pacific international travel is the major outlier, finishing 2023 at around 85% of 2019 levels. However, most airlines have passed out of the survival and rebuilding phases.

Download this exclusive brochure for a sneak peek into the CAPA Envest Global Airline Sustainability Benchmarking and Rating Report 2023.

Priced at USD 995, the report is aviation‘s essential guide to airline environmental performance. It is the first and only rating system, based on the comprehensive, objective and consistent performance data of over 100 major airlines.

The world’s biggest aviation markets are clearly awakening from their COVID-19 slumber – China’s borders have reopened and India is particularly in the spotlight following the large new aircraft orders at the Paris Air Show.

However, behind this strong performance and declarations of numerous airlines that demand remains quite strong, one glaring question remains – when will this thirst for travel born from the pandemic be quenched?

The past few years have not been kind to large airports in Asia Pacific.

With regional lockdowns, a morass of COVID-19 travel requirements and stubbornly closed international borders, the recovery in the region has trailed behind the rest of the world.

However, as lockdowns have ended and borders reopened passenger traffic in the region has started to return to more ‘normal’ volumes. In 1H2023 there has been the situation of airports enjoying a steep rebound in traffic, with travellers eager to return to destinations that have been cut off to them in the past few years, or to explore new destinations.

Traffic at North America’s 10 largest airports came roaring back in 2022. With the domestic market returning to near normality and international travel building through the year, an additional 191 million passengers passed through the main hubs during the year.

In total, the airports handled a combined 627 million passengers, which was an increase of 30.5% year-on-year. Total throughput was down just 6.7% on 2019 levels, with domestic traffic down only 3.3%. International traffic was down 24%, although the relative recovery accelerated from early 2Q2022.

Three of the top 10 North American airports have already exceeded pre-pandemic passenger levels, and all bar a few of the largest US hubs anticipate full traffic recovery during 2023. Those airports not expecting a full recovery in 2023 have significant exposure to slower recovering intercontinental traffic, particularly the Asia Pacific region. Even in the Asia Pacific, most travel markets are predicted to be back at full strength by early 2024.