Analysis Reports

Air Serbia received its fourth A330-200 on 11-Feb-2024, giving it a quartet of widebodies for the first time in its history.

The airline offers four long haul destinations (two in China and two in the USA) and is considering more, although its principal activity is providing connectivity between Serbia and European destinations.

Fleet and traffic growth took Air Serbia to its highest ever passenger numbers of 4.4 million in 2024. It expects traffic to grow by 6% in 2025 to a new high of 4.7 million, which would be 67% more than its 2019 total.

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Serbia's biggest operator has increased its seat share in the country, while low cost airline share has been eroded. Its record financial results for 2024 demonstrate that profitability is central to Air Serbia's expansion plans.

All Nippon Airways' parent ANA Holdings has announced plans for major orders of widebody and narrowbody aircraft, which will help fulfil the group's international growth ambitions and continue the refresh of its domestic fleet.

The prospective orders (including new options and option conversions), revealed on 25-Feb-2024, cover nearly 100 aircraft from three manufacturers.

ANA Holdings' board has approved the orders, and purchase agreements with manufacturers are expected to be signed between Mar-2025 and Jun-2025.

The announcement is significant, not just for the volume of aircraft involved, but also for what it indicates in terms of fleet and network strategy.

Widebody orders show that ANA is doubling down on its international expansion drive. And its narrowbody orders are aimed more at replacement than growth, highlighting the slower growth rate expected to prevail in the domestic market.

New aircraft types included in the orders are also interesting - long-range narrowbodies point to an enlargement of LCC Peach's role, and the addition of Embraer regional jets will give the group greater flexibility in matching aircraft to domestic routes.

Many countries across the world have been through the mill of identifying a location for a major new airport, even when it is clear as day that one is needed urgently.

During the first quarter of this century passenger traffic at Lisbon's Humberto Delgado Airport in Portugal's capital city has grown from nine million to over 35 million each year, and up to 100 million annual passengers were expected by 2050, which it simply couldn't handle.

Expanding Humberto Delgado would be very difficult, as it is constrained by suburban developments, but securing a location for a long term replacement has been equally demanding as original proposals dating back decades were shelved, only for one of them to make a surprise return.

Now, a new airport will be built by 2034 on a military firing range close to a bird sanctuary (what could possibly go wrong?), although the procedure remains at an early stage, and formal proposals are not required for three years.

The question posed in this overview of events does not concern the location, though; rather it asks if the contract to build and operate it should have been handed on a plate to the existing private sector operator, or whether other capable organisations should have been afforded the opportunity to stake their claim.

And also it asks if there is any option for Humberto Delgado to retain an aeronautical role, rather than to be confined to history.

This regular CAPA - Centre for Aviation report provides a summary of major developments in the aircraft interiors sector, supported by data from the CAPA - Centre for Aviation Aircraft Interiors Database and CAPA - Centre for Aviation News.

This edition covers Jan-2025 and Feb-2025 and features:

• Starlink's rapid growth and the changing IFC market;

• Region Focus: North America;

• Latest global interior updates.

Macau, a special administrative region of China situated in the Greater Bay economic region (and close to both Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland), would probably have a bigger regional airport hub were it not for the presence of Hong Kong, to which it is connected by a bridge.

But Macau offers what is the probably the world's biggest draw to visitors in the form of its gambling facilities - it is the largest venue, as measured by gambling revenues.

While the Chinese continue to travel in droves (and they are now doing again, after the COVID-19 pandemic), Macau's single-sector economy will continue to thrive, and despite the improving offers being made by the Philippines and Indonesia.

In the longer term its future is tied up with the progression of the Greater Bay area, the world's largest economic region, and how Macau fits into the vision for its further development.

During the past few weeks, looming threats by the US of tariffs on goods in two of the country's most important air travel markets - Canada and Mexico - have already resulted in some airlines working to de-risk their operations from the potential economic unrest.

Now the administration of President Trump has once again delivered a firm date of 4-Mar-2025 for tariffs to begin.

It is yet to be revealed whether charges will ultimately take effect, or remain a negotiating tactic by the US, but either outcome could impact air travel demand in those key markets.

Dublin Airport dominates Ireland's aviation market, accounting for 84% of scheduled seats in the country in 2024. It has been central to Ireland's economy and success as an aviation market for 85 years since its first flight in Jan-1940.

Ryanair, Ireland's and Dublin's leading airline, has announced a record summer schedule at Dublin, following the temporary suspension of Dublin Airport's traffic cap of 32 million annual passengers for summer 2025.

However, beyond this, uncertainty remains while the European Court of Justice reviews the cap and pending applications to increase it.

New details released by Air New Zealand highlight the severity of the engine availability issues it is confronting - and the bad news is that the situation is unlikely to improve in the near term, and may even get worse.

Air New Zealand is among the worst affected by the engine maintenance backlogs that are hurting many airlines around the world, when factoring in the number of aircraft grounded in relation to fleet size.

Air New Zealand's widebody and narrowbody fleets have both been hit by groundings, as it relies on Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for its Airbus A320neo-family aircraft, and Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines for its Boeing 787s.

The maintenance logjams - and also delivery delays - are out of the airline's control, so it has been very difficult to accurately predict the engine availability rate.

However, the airline does not expect meaningful improvement until around the middle of (calendar year) 2026.

As its national airline approaches its 80th birthday on 14-Mar-2025, the Portuguese government is reported to be closer to selling 49%, or more, of TAP Air Portugal.

The on-off privatisation process has been anticipated for a number of years, and is now expected to restart in Mar-2025, with a sale completing towards the end of this year or early in 2026. Ministers have expressed a preference to sell 100% of the national airline, whereas opposition parties prefer a partial sale only.

TAP is the leading airline in Portugal, but has yet to return to its 2019 levels of traffic and capacity. Its seat share in the Portugal market has been in long term decline, to the advantage of low cost airlines (although LCC share has levelled out in recent years).

TAP's greatest strength is routes between Europe and Brazil, where it is number one by seats, and where its seat share has been more stable.

All of Europe's big three legacy groups - Lufthansa Group, IAG and Air France-KLM - are interested in the privatisation, but there are possible complications for each of them.

A new codeshare deal between Air India and Virgin Australia highlights the rising interest in the small - but growing - market between these two countries, Australia and India.

The unilateral codeshare does not directly boost capacity in this market, but it does add another important layer to existing services that should help increase demand, at least in one direction.

The India-Australia nonstop market is far less developed than others. However, it is on an upward trajectory, and has surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

It is also a safe bet that there is plenty more potential for growth in this market, and it is likely to factor into Indian airline expansion plans.