Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are unquestionably the market leaders in the US, as both companies continue to distinguish themselves from airline operators that are struggling to define themselves in an evolving market.
Those airlines are arguably in a unique position to continue building their market momentum as the large ultra-low cost carriers in the US battle an identity crisis, and other airlines undertake turnaround plans to improve their financial performance.
As other airlines remain distracted, Delta and United can focus on further distancing themselves from those airline companies attempting to adapt to customer preferences that those two airlines have catered to for years.
That only creates upside for Delta and United in the future.
Air Serbia's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been outpacing that of the wider Europe market since the start of 2022.
Its capacity has been above 100% of its 2019 levels since the start of the northern winter 2022/2023 season at the end of Oct-2022.
This expansion in the aftermath of COVID-19 has been achieved without sacrificing profitability.
CAPA - Centre for Aviation asked Air Serbia, CEO, Jiri Marek to share his views on the airline's development.
Jet2 plc, the owner of the low cost airline Jet2.com and Jet2holidays, has been named 'AIM Growth Business of the Year' among companies whose shares are listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM).
At the awards on 13-Oct-2024 the group was cited for achieving record passenger numbers, revenue and profit. The Jet2 brand has also been a consistent winner of awards for its customer service.
Management of Jet2.com, the UK's number four airline, is integrated with Jet2holidays, the UK's number one package holiday provider.
The relationship between the two is crucial to the airline's success.
This report considers Jet2.com's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
North Atlantic aviation: immunised JVs dominate the recovery; LCCs growing but PLAY changes strategy
The market between Europe and North America continues to lead the long haul capacity recovery to/from Europe. North Atlantic seat numbers are scheduled to reach 106% of 2019 for 2024, compared with 102% for the overall Europe market.
There is only one European airline in the North Atlantic top five by seats in 2024 (British Airways, ranked behind United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, but above American Airlines and Air Canada).
European airlines still have more than half of seats in this route region, but their share has been eroded since 2019.
The antitrust immune joint ventures have lost some share in 2024 versus 2023, but have strengthened their position since 2019. Low cost share has diminished since 2019, with the withdrawal of Norwegian and the collapse of WOW air, but it has grown in each of the past three years.
The decision by Icelandic carrier PLAY to focus more on European leisure flying and reduce its North American operation in 2025 will influence the LCC share.
The resurgence of low cost airlines on the North Atlantic is still a sideshow compared to the dominance of the JVs, but is keeping disruptive innovation alive in the market.
India's Spicejet has secured deals to boost its operational fleet, signalling that the airline's efforts to raise more funds may help it to reverse its decline and move closer to its former scale.
The key to the improvement in the airline's outlook is the successful completion of a capital raise.
This was quickly followed by the announcement that it will add 10 more aircraft to its fleet, comprising new leases and the reactivation of some grounded aircraft.
SpiceJet's fragile financial condition has been a major handicap for the company, forcing it to keep a large proportion of its fleet grounded, and shrinking its market share.
It has fallen further behind its larger domestic rivals as they pursue ambitious growth plans.
But while challenges remain, the fundraising and fleet additions are welcome signs of progress.
Reykjavik's new airport – inertia, geography, geology, safety, train tracks, and elves on the line
Iceland is in the unusual position of having two airports - courtesy of wartime efforts - serving its capital, Reykjavik, which has less than 250,000 people.
All international capacity is located at Keflavik (KEF), far from the capital. Domestic capacity is exclusively at the domestic airport (RVK), which is right next door to downtown and perfect for visitors.
Domestic flights have been tried into KEF, but they didn't work out.
Now the authorities are looking again at a new domestic airport located along the A41 road to KEF, and almost halfway along it, at that.
That doesn't seem to make sense, but from a safety angle it does, because diversionary procedures at KEF have been shown to be inadequate and need to be improved.
The ultimate answer might be to build this new airport and connect it by way of a long proposed high speed rail line to the city and southerly suburbs in one direction, and KEF in the other.
But who would pay for that in the current economic climate is the 64,000 dollar question.
Southwest and JetBlue undertake turnarounds – activist investors use different strategies
US airlines Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways face a pivotal year in 2027, which is the deadline for each company to deliver on stated EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) goals inherent in their respective turnaround plans, which were presented to investors this year.
Those plans are fairly straightforward: fleet and network adjustments, product improvements and cost containment. But obviously execution is key for each airline as they face new activist investors that, for now, have adopted vastly different approaches in their roles.
There is also a possibility that Elliott could succeed in its efforts to remove some of Southwest's top executives from their posts, creating some level of uncertainty over the airline's transformation plan coming to fruition.
A year on from the 7-Oct-2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, the widening of the conflict sparked by that event has had a significant negative impact on aviation markets in the region.
Israel outpaced the Middle East's capacity recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic until 12 months ago. Since then, it has fallen well behind, and it is scheduled to be at only 63% of 2019 capacity in 2024.
However, while foreign airlines have cut capacity on international routes to/from Israel, El Al is projected to operate 104% of its 2019 seat numbers in 2024.
The spread of armed conflict in the region has also resulted in depressed aviation capacity in other countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iran and others.
A raft of international airlines have announced further suspensions of services to all of these nations, in many cases until later in Oct-2024. However, with considerable uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical course of events, route suspensions could continue for much longer.
KKR and Skip Infrastructure Fund acquire 75% stake in Queensland Airports; billionaires take control
CAPA - Centre for Aviation anticipated an explosion of M&A activity arising out of the sale of Sydney airport a couple of years ago, both in Australia and internationally.
That didn't happen for a variety of reasons, but in the last 12 months since late 2023 there has been some movement in on-sales of lease equity in Australia (not new sales, because all the airports that matter there have long been privatised).
It has culminated in a transaction at the end of Sep-2024 that resulted in three of the four shareholders in Queensland Airports Ltd (QAL) - which has four facilities in northeastern Australia, including the principal one at Gold Coast - selling their combined 75% share to an (unnamed) consortium of the US private equity firm KKR and the Australian tech financier Skip Capital, which KKR needs on board to satisfy local ownership regulations.
It is KKR's first acquisition in this sector, although it has occasionally tried in the past.
A big driver on the sell side is the overexposure of many of Australia's funds to airports, with some investors committed to several funds putting their money into the same assets; this coupled with nervousness about the failure of the air transport market to get back to pre-COVID levels, as it has been able to do so elsewhere.
That hasn't stopped KKR leaping in blindly, its hand held perhaps by the Skip CEO, who has deal-making experience - at least with airports, though that isn't the same as running them.
It is a strange and surely unforeseen outcome of the privatisation exercise that began in 1997 that a clutch of four small airports, most of them remote, and which together host fewer than 10mppa, should now be owned by two billionaire families and a US private equity firm.
However, it is all part of a sea change in the sector, which is likely to see further activity; also in the northeast of the country, and also out west in Perth, where the action has now shifted.
Even before officially taking office in Dec-2023, Argentina's President Javier Milei expressed his desire to privatise some of the country's government-owned entities, including its flag carrier Aerolineas Argentinas.
Now Mr Milei is moving to speed up the process, but it's unclear if he'll be successful in his efforts, as the airline's unions demand higher pay and the country's legislators need to put their stamp of approval on the process.
More broadly, potential acquirers of Aerolineas Argentinas would need to conduct a careful risk-reward analysis.
Any acquisition would be rife with labour strife, and there is a distinct possibility that Argentina's political winds could quickly shift.
However, the airline is the largest operator in an emerging market, with significant opportunities to grow and stimulate traffic.